California’s amazing avocado season churning to the end

By Sept. 1, California avocado growers had already exceeded pre-season expectations by more than 50%, with total volume heading toward the 350 million mark before the season finishes.

In October 2023, as the 2024 season began, the California Avocado Commission, after surveying growers and handlers, released a crop estimate of just over 200 million pounds. It became obvious midseason that the total volume would far exceed the estimate. A revised estimate, based on grower surveys, projected that around 270 million pounds of avocados would be sold this year.

350 million pound crop within reach; 2025 even larger

“California just keeps going,” said Peter Shore, vice president of product management for Calavo Growers in Santa Paula, California, on Aug. 30. “By the end of this week we will be at 328 million pounds and next week’s volume will be higher than this week. We could hit 335 million pounds (by Sept. 7).”

He said a 350 million pound crop is within reach as shipments are expected to continue throughout the month. Shore said the missed estimate was mostly the result of the trees outperforming expectations. In addition, there were virtually no crop-reducing adverse weather conditions to deal with throughout the year, which estimators tend to plan for.  He added that many new plantings in Ventura County came on with good volume more quickly than anticipated because of back-to-back years with above average rainfall.

What excites Shore and most everyone else in California’s avocado industry is that the 2025 crop has all the makings of being even larger. California could potentially ship 400 million pounds for the first time in a decade.

Upcoming avocado promotions rely on smaller fruit

With Mexico’s volume starting to increase again after a typically light summer season, avocado promotions should flourish again in the next month or so. However, that won't be the case for organic avocados. Supplies of organics have been short as California exhausted most of its supply by its mid-season and Mexico’s organic volume is just starting to climb again as its total crop volume increases. “We have seen gaps in supply of organics,” Shore said. “The market price (on organics) is very good. You might not see any promotable pricing until late September.”

For both organic and conventional avocados, he said the Mexico size curve is trending toward the smaller end of the scale. He added that promotable pricing, when it arrives possibly in the second half of September, will most likely feature 60s, 70s and 84s, with bagged fruit offering some value opportunities.

Rob Ybarra, executive vice president of Villita Avocados in Pharr, Texas, reported that the smaller fruit will be the focus for a couple of months even as Mexico ramps up its volume. “We aren’t going to see more of the larger fruit until probably mid-November,” he said on Sept. 3. “I think we have six to eight more weeks in which the smaller fruit—60s, 70s and 84s—is going to dominate. Around Thanksgiving and then into December, January and February, we should see a more normal size curve with more 48s, 40s and 36s.”

He noted that Mexico will still be shipping its summer loca avocados into October as it overlaps the aventajada crop. He didn’t want to predict when there will be promotional pricing but he did say it is going to center around the smaller-sized fruit in bags.

Ybarra said that the same pattern will be true for organics. “On the organics, the most popular sizes in bulk are the 48s and 60s,” he said. “But we also see a lot of bags of organics being sold. In fact, I think we might sell more bagged organics than bulk.”

Demand remains steady

Ybarra noted that the FOB price on organic avocados is very high presently because of the lack of supplies. But that doesn’t seem to deter the organic customer. “We see the demand continuing to increase,” he said. “We have been surprised at some of the projections (on their future needs) that our customers are making for organics. It’s the millennials and the Gen Zers that are driving those sales. They want healthier options.”

Ybarra said as a company Villita has taken notice and he indicated that the grower-shipper-packer is both looking for additional organic growers and converting some of its own acreage.  “We are evolving as a company. Organics are here to stay,” he said.