Demand Significantly Outpacing Organic Avocado Supply

The market price on organic avocados has once again hit stratospheric levels this week as the volume on larger-sized fruit is very limited. The FOB price reached the upper $70s on 48s, while wholesale produce marketers were asking in the upper $80s—or even more.

California’s organic production is quickly winding down, and Mexico’s summer crop continues to have problems reaching a normal size curve. Peru is chipping in with some organic volume on larger sizes, but virtually all of that volume is committed to program sales.

In fact, Rob Ybarra, executive vice president of Villita Avocados in Pharr, Texas, said the same is true for his organic volume from Mexico. “Everything we bring in is already sold,” he said of the company’s volume coming into Texas from its packing sheds in Michoacan and Jaliso. “We are bringing in no organic fruit for the spot market.”

Rob Ybarra, Executive Vice President, Villita Avocados

Organic avocados from Mexico, he said, are facing the same challenges as the conventional fruit this summer. &ldqldquo;There has been a little bit of rain the last 10 days,” Ybarra noted, “but before that there was nothing. The fruit just is not sizing.”

“Everything we bring in is already sold,” he said of the company’s volume coming into Texas from its packing sheds in Michoacan and Jaliso. “We are bringing in no organic fruit for the spot market.” - Rob Ybarra

And organic avocados have the added pressure of increasing consumer demand. “Organic avocados are like the New England Patriots when they are on a hot streak; they can’t lose,” he said. “It’s a real credit to the organic industry that demand continues to increase every year.”

Relief, however, is on the way. “With every passing calendar day, we get closer to September, which is a good thing because during July and August we’ve had a continuous lack of sizing.”

With a little bit of luck, the last three weeks of August will see normal rainfall return, and “by the second week of September—maybe mid-September—we will see good volume again,” Ybarra said.

Organic avocados make up about 4 to 5 percent of Mexico's volume, and as the conventional volume increases, the organic volume will follow suit. “We should be in pretty good shape from mid-September into April,” he said.

“Organic avocados are like the New England Patriots when they are on a hot streak; they can’t lose. It’s a real credit to the organic industry that demand continues to increase every year.” - Rob Ybarra

Gahl Crane, sales director at Eco Farms in Temecula, California, agreed that organic avocados are very limited but said the situation "is in the process of getting better.”

“Slowly but steadily, it’s getting better. If we can get some more rain [in Mexico], we should see some larger fruit in September, and then the Aventajada crop should kick in,” Crane said. “Mexico will start to ramp up, and I think we will see promotable volume [of organic avocados] by mid-September with a normal size curve.”

Gahl Crane, Sales Director, Eco Farms

He did add, however, that there is still a month between now and then, and a lot can happen to change that forecast.

Like Ybarra, Crane said organic 48s are in very limited supply, and 60- and 70-count cartons are carrying the load. California growers, he said, are still picking, but the organic volume is dwindling. A higher percentage of the avocados grown in the southern districts of the state are organic than in the northern district. The fruit from the south is picked earlier, with most of those groves finished for the season. 

“Slowly but steadily, it’s getting better. If we can get some more rain [in Mexico], we should see some larger fruit in September, and then the Aventajada crop should kick in. Mexico will start to ramp up, and I think we will see promotable volume [of organic avocados] by mid-September with a normal size curve.” - Gahl Crane

“Growers are finding that they are running out of organic avocados two, three, or four weeks earlier than expected,” Crane said. “There’s less fruit, and the size isn’t there. We are in the final weeks of California organics.”

While Peru is in the middle of its export volume to the US market, growers in the South American country have also been hit with weather issues. “It’s a down year,” Crane said. “We are seeing 20-30 percent fewer shipments than what they thought they would be sending to the US.”

Eco Farms organic avocados

Ybarra added that he is looking forward to the increase in volume, which should coincide with a big announcement from Villita. He noted the company is close to launching a compostable packaging option for its organic avocados. “We should be completely plastic free in about eight weeks for our organic fruit,” he said.