More Organic Avocados Expected but Demand Still Exceeds Supply

The California avocado industry has estimated its total crop to be about 70 percent greater than last year, which means its production of organic avocados will also be significantly greater than 2019.

Gahl Crane of Eco Farms Avocados Inc., Temecula, Ca, reasoned that even though there has not been a significant increase in acreage devoted to organics, there will naturally be more supplies of California avocdos than last year over the next six months because of the larger crop.

That same comment was echoed by two other California avocado experts. “I don’t see much change in organic acreage,” said Ross Wileman of Mission Produce, Oxnard, CA, “but naturally we are going to have more organic fruit this year from California.”

“We believe the supply of organic avocados from California this season will increase by about the same percentage as the conventional crop,” said Rob Wedin of Calavo Growers, Inc., Santa Paula, CA, which would pencil out to close to a 70 percent increase and could be in the 30-35 million pound range.

But whatever the increase, he said it won’t be enough. “Organics are very popular and for avocados demand continues to exceed supply.”

He revealed that Calavo increased its Mexican organic avocado imports by 60 percent from 2017 to 2019 and still didn’t keep up with demand. While some crops – most notably apples and grapes – have seen significant percentage increase in organics vs. conventional with organic production share in the 15 percent range, avocados have lagged. Over the past several years, organic avocados have represented, on average, about 6-8 percent of the California crop and a smaller percentage of the Mexican production.

In theory, Crane said organic avocado production in Mexico should be able to increase at a faster clip as labor is cheaper, so it is less expensive to devote the manhours that are necessary when using that growing method. And Mexico, of course, is the major supplier of avocados to the U.S. market by a large margin.

This month, there has been a very strong market for all avocados as Super Bowl weekend cleaned out the inventory and the typical post-Super Bowl cut back in shipments from Mexico created great demand. Conventional avocados (48 size) crossed the $50 f.o.b. per carton plateau last week (Feb. 10-17) and were expected to continue to inch up this week. Organic avocados were selling for about 20 percent more as they approached $60 per carton.

Growers of conventional fruit were receiving up to $1.50 per pound in the grove for the best sizes, while organic producers were commanding $1.85 per pound or more at the farmgate for their most popular fruit. Those prices are enough to stimulate increased picking.

Avocado movement in the United States has been very strong this year with more than 300 million pounds sold in the United States in the first five weeks of the calendar year. Many experts are predicting a record 2020 year as total sales head toward the three-billion-pound mark. Mexico continues to export an average of more than 50 million pounds of fruit to the U.S. market each year. In addition, both California and Peru are slated to have significantly more fruit that will be marketed in the United States this year.

Crane predicted that organic avocados would continue to produce good returns for growers and shippers but said that in April and May there could be enough supplies to note some promotional pricing. 

California growers are increasing their production on a weekly basis with peak supplies expected to be sold in the April through July time frame. Peru, which has sent an increasing number of organic avocados to the U.S. market over the last few years, is always the unknown quantity. Producers in Peru send most of their avocado crop to Europe, where they are the leading supplier. Preliminary estimates indicate that Peru’s U.S. avocado shipments could be up as much as 35 percent in 2020. Presumably, shipments of organic avocados would mirror that. 

The timing of Peru’s crop is also unknown at this point. Their production window is like the California avocado season, but exporters play the market during that May to September time frame, adjusting shipments based on the best market price. Shipments to Europe from Peru are expected to begin in March, at which point U.S. avocado importers will have a better handle on when Peruvian fruit will arrive in the States.