2020 Q3 Organic Produce Performance Review

Based on a review of historical performance there is ample evidence that supermarket produce departments continue to see increases in dollars and volume resulting from Covid-19 driven shifts in consumer food purchase behavior. As has been widely documented, supermarkets have benefited from increases in at-home consumption as foodservice and institutional dining options remain closed and/or operating at reduced capacity.

Whether this performance increase for supermarket produce will continue is obviously directly linked to declining coronavirus infection rates, development of a vaccine and the broader opening of the economy. All of these factors will allow consumers to revert to more normal food consumption patterns—a trend that began to emerge in Q3 vs. Q2.

An initial glimpse of the impact of a gradual re-opening of the economy was seen in conventional produce performance during Q3. While conventional volume increased during Q2 by 12.9%, in Q3 conventional produce growth over the previous year slowed, moderating to +8.2%. This is still strong growth but it substantially lower than Q2 and in the initial stages of the pandemic.

On the flip side, organic dollar and volume growth in Q3 remained strong and generally consistent with Q2, defying the broader trend observed in conventional produce. Organics increased by 16% in dollars and 15.8% in volume.